Drugs and 2012

I have been wracking my brains as to why Prime Minister Raila Odinga has not taken steps to ensure that the drug-dealers-in-government charge is laid to rest one way or the other. It makes no sense for the Prime Minister to allow this matter to be flogged in the media without the identities of the politicians, civil servants or policemen involved being revealed. Neither is he taking steps to assure the people that the charges are baseless. The allegations that have been made in Parliament indicate that at least one of the president's closest political allies may be involved in narcotics trafficking and the PM may be weighing his options regarding the question of whether he should reveal their identities or continue keeping them secret to be used at a later date. When the US ambassador set the cats among the pigeons regarding senior politicians and civil servant involved in narcotics trafficking, it demanded a response from the President and the PM. The president has maintained a studious silence on the matter, perhaps because he hopes the whole thing will fade away. The PM, on the other hand, has his (future) presidential ambitions to consider and he can hardly keep mum.

A casual examination of the political landscape will suffice. The Parliamentary committees, especially on Defense and Foreign Relations, and on Equal Opportunities have been active this past month. The traditional committees, like the PIC and the PAC, have been silent. Perhaps with its chairman fighting an election petition, Hon. Dr. Bonny Khalwale is too busy to steer the PAC to investigate malfeasance in government at the moment. The PM has been lucky that some of his political opponents are facing tough choices in the next few months. Hon. Ruto has been suspended. Hon. Wetangula has 'stepped aside'. Hon. Kenyatta faces tough questions in relation to PEV. Senior security and intelligence officers are about to be questioned by ICC investigators. The PM therefore, needs his people to be in positions of strength going into the anticipate 2012 elections. I think this is the reason why he is keeping the drugs question alive. He wants to deflect attention from his allies, including Hon. Charity Ngilu who faces corruption issues in the Ministry of Water and Hon. Otieno Kajwang who has questions to answer in relation to corruption in the Ministry of Immigration.

There are those who have kept an eagle eye on the PM, including his forays abroad. He has been to India and Germany in recent months. The speculation is that the PM is being 'groomed' by foreign powers to assume the presidency in 2012. Indeed, the allusions to foreign funds for election campaigns has been raised precisely because it is suspected that a significant chunk of the money he spent in 2007 came from overseas. If this is the case, perhaps it is the Germans who are acting as a stalking horse for the West meaning the US, the UK and the EU. However, he has not been linked to China, the other global power with intentions on the African continent. The Chinese seem to have hitched their wagons to Central Kenya, with delegations from the region making regular 'investment' trips to cities in China, most notably to the Shanghai Expo recently. Therefore, it is safe to assume that if foreign powers are playing the Great Game in Kenya, the West has in Raila Odinga their champion, while China will back whomever Central Kenya endorses come 2012.

The ODM leader must begin to shore up his support in various regions before the next elections. It is believed that he has lost the support of the North Rift - after all, William Ruto and Samuel Poghishio are not seen as his most ardent supporters. In Ukambani, he still has the backing of Charity Ngilu, but he needs to woo the minnows like the two Kilonzos to his side. The loyalties of John Harun Mwau and Prof. Phillip Kaloki remain unknown. He seems pretty set when it comes to Western and Nyanza, but he needs to be able to count on significant pockets of support in the Coast and North Eastern regions. This may explain why he is keeping the drugs issue alive - to distract the public from the challenges his allies and acolytes are facing in regards to corruption charges.

Things have changed, though. The traditional outlook based on provincial arithmetic is now out and he must now begin afresh, looking at the 47 counties as separate political units. A successful presidential candidate must sweep 51% of the counties in the next elections. The assumptions that men like William Ruto control the Rift Valley will be put to the test when the indictments from the Hague are handed down. If Hon. Ruto is indicted, and if only the people of Uasin Gishu County come out in his defense, then the PM has a chance with the entire Rift Valley come 2012. If Uhuru Kenyatta is indicted, it may throw the game open in Central Kenya, as he is not the only potential or viable candidate - Martha Karua, George Saitoti and Peter Kenneth are already sniping at his heels and how they survive 2011 will determine the fate of 2012, although Hon Karua is now in deep water over her staunch defense of Mike Sonko. The PM must have support in the National Assembly and the Senate for his presidential agenda to succeed; if he only gets one House, he may find himself cutting deals with people he despises.

The PM is playing a dangerous game. If he allows the drugs problem to remain unresolved, the questions of what he knew, when he knew and what he did may come to haunt him in the campaign. If he manages to salvage Hon. Ngilu's political career and it is later shown that she indeed is corrupt, he will lose face with many Kenyans. If he allows the people around President Kibaki to be indicted on drugs charges, he could stand indicted in Central Kenya for destroying their political base, just as he is being blamed for destroying the prospects of Kalenjins opposed to his political ambitions. How he manages to thread this needle will determine the kind of president he will be.