Musalia
Mudavadi's vacillation reflects what he did in 2002: unable to find a
soft-landing in the then LDP, he went back to KANU, joined Uhuru
Kenyatta on the ballot, and not only lost the election, but lost his
seat in the bargain. History repeats itself, first as farce and then as
tragedy. This is the farcical portion of Musalia Mudavadi's history
repeating itself. It had become apparent very early on in his Deputy
Prime Ministerial career that as Deputy Leader of the ODM, he was always
going to play second fiddle to Raila Odinga. When the party was
preparing for the presidential nominations, he quit the party in a huff
because of the likelihood of a boardroom deal in choosing the
standard-bearer of the party, and moved into the UDF which he marketed,
successfully, to the TNA/URP coalition.
Now, when Musalia Mudavadi was rejecting the boardroom deal idea in ODM, he was the Minister for Local Government, and he had used his office to mobilise, for his presidential bid, thousands of local authority officials and workers to throw their weight behind him when he challenged Raila Odinga for the presidential ticket. It seems he had not considered in full the implications of resigning as Minister, while retaining the DPM's post. The DPM position is the more prestigious but it is the Minister for local Government's that is the more powerful, and had Musalia Mudavadi though a bit more carefully, he'd have left Raila Odinga's shadow as Deputy Party Leader and DPM, but kept his foot firmly on 2013 by retaining the Local Government portfolio. Mwai Kibaki, I think, would have backed him up as a sop to Uhuru Kenyatta, Mudavadi's co-DPM.
Mr Mudavadi abandoned the delegates route after he quit ODM precisely because he would have very little time to not only set up a new party but ensure that in any future negotiations with "like-minded" political actors, it would be strong enough to dictate terms. His only hope was the abortive deal between him and Uhuru Kenyatta, that Uhuru Kenyatta worked stealthily and craftily to discredit as soon as it was signed. No one thinks that Mr Kenyatta was about to abandon his presidential ambitions; he has invested too heavily for some Johnnie-come-lately to swan in and scoop the prize. What is shocking is that Musalia Mudavadi believed that the presidential ticket would be handed to him for no effort at all. It has never occurred to him that his Sabatia seat was handed to him by President Moi upon his father's death. This thought should have been at the front of his mind when, by the OD wave, he resumed the seat in 2007. The DPM's and Deputy Party Leader's positions were bequeathed upon him by Raila Odinga. UDF, it is alleged, was handed to him by Joe Wanjui. Bu this record, Mr Mudavadi is yet to build anything for himself. He came close as Local Government Minister and the constituency of local authority bigwigs he was assembling. No more.
Mr Kenyatta has proved wilier and cannier than many give him credit for. His strategy has been to Keep Raila Odinga on the back-foot all the way to the general election. To a great extent, he has succeeded. First he took advantage of the disquiet and grumbling in ODM. He reaped where Raila Odinga had sown; he has inherited a large chunk of Mr Odinga's Rift Valley Parliamentary cohort, as he has bits and pieces from Western, South Nyanza, Coast, North Eastern and Eastern. He managed to persuade Mr Mudavadi of his honourable intentions, relying, no doubt, on their shared humiliation after the 2002 general election. He managed to retain his links to Mr Ruto at a very close and personal level; after all, it is not just in jest the two are referred to as the Coalition of Suspects. With the imminent departure from Jubilee by UDF, Mr Kenyatta has managed to destroy the Musalia brand in ODM and, thus, ensure that Mr Mudavadi's return to the ODM fold will be tarnished. He has also managed to lock him out of any other significant alliance; he is left to pick at scraps like Martha Karua's NARC-K or James ole Kiyiapi's RBK. Mr Mudavadi is now a political joke.
Now, when Musalia Mudavadi was rejecting the boardroom deal idea in ODM, he was the Minister for Local Government, and he had used his office to mobilise, for his presidential bid, thousands of local authority officials and workers to throw their weight behind him when he challenged Raila Odinga for the presidential ticket. It seems he had not considered in full the implications of resigning as Minister, while retaining the DPM's post. The DPM position is the more prestigious but it is the Minister for local Government's that is the more powerful, and had Musalia Mudavadi though a bit more carefully, he'd have left Raila Odinga's shadow as Deputy Party Leader and DPM, but kept his foot firmly on 2013 by retaining the Local Government portfolio. Mwai Kibaki, I think, would have backed him up as a sop to Uhuru Kenyatta, Mudavadi's co-DPM.
Mr Mudavadi abandoned the delegates route after he quit ODM precisely because he would have very little time to not only set up a new party but ensure that in any future negotiations with "like-minded" political actors, it would be strong enough to dictate terms. His only hope was the abortive deal between him and Uhuru Kenyatta, that Uhuru Kenyatta worked stealthily and craftily to discredit as soon as it was signed. No one thinks that Mr Kenyatta was about to abandon his presidential ambitions; he has invested too heavily for some Johnnie-come-lately to swan in and scoop the prize. What is shocking is that Musalia Mudavadi believed that the presidential ticket would be handed to him for no effort at all. It has never occurred to him that his Sabatia seat was handed to him by President Moi upon his father's death. This thought should have been at the front of his mind when, by the OD wave, he resumed the seat in 2007. The DPM's and Deputy Party Leader's positions were bequeathed upon him by Raila Odinga. UDF, it is alleged, was handed to him by Joe Wanjui. Bu this record, Mr Mudavadi is yet to build anything for himself. He came close as Local Government Minister and the constituency of local authority bigwigs he was assembling. No more.
Mr Kenyatta has proved wilier and cannier than many give him credit for. His strategy has been to Keep Raila Odinga on the back-foot all the way to the general election. To a great extent, he has succeeded. First he took advantage of the disquiet and grumbling in ODM. He reaped where Raila Odinga had sown; he has inherited a large chunk of Mr Odinga's Rift Valley Parliamentary cohort, as he has bits and pieces from Western, South Nyanza, Coast, North Eastern and Eastern. He managed to persuade Mr Mudavadi of his honourable intentions, relying, no doubt, on their shared humiliation after the 2002 general election. He managed to retain his links to Mr Ruto at a very close and personal level; after all, it is not just in jest the two are referred to as the Coalition of Suspects. With the imminent departure from Jubilee by UDF, Mr Kenyatta has managed to destroy the Musalia brand in ODM and, thus, ensure that Mr Mudavadi's return to the ODM fold will be tarnished. He has also managed to lock him out of any other significant alliance; he is left to pick at scraps like Martha Karua's NARC-K or James ole Kiyiapi's RBK. Mr Mudavadi is now a political joke.
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